The last time we have seen a movement in our indicators such as the movement in the last three months were the following dates: 1971, 1978, 1986, 1994, and 2006. The only year that a recession did not occur a year or two later was 1994. A recession occurred in the other four periods on average 1 and half years later. We predict a global recession within the next year.
However, our behavioral indicators suggest that before that global recession occurs global markets increase. Therefore we are bullish to an extent over the following year afterwards we are bearish.
The following markets we like:
1. South Africa
2. Turkey
3. US government bonds
4. Gold
5. India
6. Mexico
Our indicators suggest several emerging equity markets will do over the upcoming year. Right not emerging markets have not performed well but we think these markets will do well in the upcoming year.
Sunday, November 13, 2011
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