Every Sunday there will be a new post regarding the results of our models. Please bookmark the site and take a look before the new week begins.

What does the model predict going forward. Again, BFI Advisors employs 3 indicators. One of the indicators integrates behavioral finance and agent-based modeling to indicate when markets are over and under valued. If the indicator is under 1 it is undervalued and over 1 means overvalued. We do see some similarities from May/June of 2010 with the month of July/August in 2004. Remember from 2000-2002 was similar to 2008 and 2003 was similar to 2004 as far as the direction of the market. The magnitude of the movements was distinct. And 2004 compares to 2010. Our under/over valued indicator in 2004 has similarities to 2010 as noted below. If we believe this similarity will continue than our 2010 indicator should rise in value over the next several weeks. What does this mean. It means we predict the stock market will rise in the next several weeks.

What do the other indicators say about which markets to invest long-term. The model is still over weighting India, South Africa, and Israel. India and South Africa have weathered the May storm well relative to other markets. However, Israel has not. We do recommend to hold off on Israel until our short-term indicators indicate to close the hedge. Currently, there is no hedge on India or South Africa. We will keep you updated next week.








4/25/2010 0.92496 7/4/2004 0.90089
5/2/2010 0.94169 7/11/2004 0.89277
5/9/2010 0.91633 7/18/2004 0.88128
5/16/2010 0.84932 7/25/2004 0.8719
5/23/2010 0.8705 8/1/2004 0.85502
5/30/2010 0.82822 8/8/2004 0.86791
6/6/2010 0.83201 8/15/2004 0.83308
6/13/2010 0.80995 8/22/2004 0.83273
8/29/2004 0.86366
9/5/2004 0.87112
9/12/2004 0.87606
9/19/2004 0.88527
9/26/2004 0.89168