9.11.11 Market Update

Based on recent model results we do not see stock markets falling that much further. Looks like the markets will battle back and forth until uncertainty settles. The US and Europe are still well under their financial crisis thresholds. If this was a financial crisis brewing our indicators would have already indicated a financial crisis.

Our model still favors gold and treasuries of course. As far as equity markets our model still likes Asian markets such as the Asian Tigers as well as China and India. Of course we are concerned about what the markets will bring us. However, our models suggest the worst is behind us. Markets are overreacting to a point. At the same time there are no bullish signals for any one particular market other than gold and treasuries which suggests the markets will not increase in the immediate future, but the markets will not fall another 10 or 15% again.

Blog 9.04.11

The media has been taking about a double dip recession. What do our indicators say? It says there is no US recession. Going back to 1970 our indicators have indicate there was a US recession before every US recession. What does this mean? It means the markets are forecasting a worst case scenario.

Our model suggests to keep a good exposure to gold, however, also to emerging Asian markets such as Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia.