The model results suggest no imminent 2008 type global crisis. The short-term measures have come down considerably. The crisis indicators for Europe and specific European countries of Greece, Spain, and Italy are near the crisis threshold but still below. Typically when a crisis is going to hit our indicators pass the threshold months in advance. Since the markets have already been rattled we believe the current measures near crisis threshold are more contemporaneous. When this occurs it typically means the end is near, however, the market is susceptible to another major shock 3-12 months out.
What to invest in today?
The top five markets we like are:
South Africa
Turkey
India
Mexico
Japan
Sunday, October 23, 2011
Sunday, October 16, 2011
Market Update 10.16.11
Two weeks ago we posted that the global markets were near a bottom based on our measures. Since then they have rebounded considerably. We are not out of the woods yet though. US Treasuries and Gold are still very much bullish according to the model. Even so, they are losing some bullish strength. Once the model suggest no more bullishness then we are out of the woods for the time being.
However, select equity market are now becoming bullish which is a good sign. Prior to July 31 there were no equity markets that were bullish. Here are the top equity markets:
South Africa
Mexico
India
Japan
China
For those that are risk takers, we view Indonesia and Malaysia are coming back hard. When markets are at the bottom of our list we find they typically come back strong. These markets are at the bottom of our list now.
However, select equity market are now becoming bullish which is a good sign. Prior to July 31 there were no equity markets that were bullish. Here are the top equity markets:
South Africa
Mexico
India
Japan
China
For those that are risk takers, we view Indonesia and Malaysia are coming back hard. When markets are at the bottom of our list we find they typically come back strong. These markets are at the bottom of our list now.
Sunday, October 2, 2011
Market Update 10.02.11
Financial markets have been crazy the past two months. It does not look like it will subside until the European debt crisis and more info about the US economy becomes available.
Either way what does the model say? The model is not predicting another global financial crisis such as in 2008. Ignore the fear that is out there. We find irrational fear is at one of its greatest points in our history since 1970. This means the bottom is close. Also our US measure is close to its financial crisis threshold. When the market moves down 10-20% and then hits the financial crisis threshold it also means the market has bottomed. It is not at the threshold yet but the most we see the market fall is between 5-10%. Not another 2008.
Where do you place your money?
We like select equity markets such as Japan, Mexico, South Africa, Turkey, and India. Treasuries are still bullish.
Either way what does the model say? The model is not predicting another global financial crisis such as in 2008. Ignore the fear that is out there. We find irrational fear is at one of its greatest points in our history since 1970. This means the bottom is close. Also our US measure is close to its financial crisis threshold. When the market moves down 10-20% and then hits the financial crisis threshold it also means the market has bottomed. It is not at the threshold yet but the most we see the market fall is between 5-10%. Not another 2008.
Where do you place your money?
We like select equity markets such as Japan, Mexico, South Africa, Turkey, and India. Treasuries are still bullish.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)