In the last several weeks we have noticed based on our agent-based measure that the US dynamics were similar to that of May 2010 but less severe. We predicted two down weeks in a row and then up week, which transpired almost as predicted. If the similarities were to continue we would predict a major down week for the US market. However, based on running our model this week we have seen a departure from the similarities. Therefore, we can say anything about this week for the US market. The agent-based measure is currently at 0.917. Looking back at 2003 and 2004 where 2003 was similar to 2009 and 2004 similar to 2010, we see a lot of back and forth for now until we see another major move to the upside for the US.
Based on our recent measures we like to reiterate the markets we like for the long-run. In the past year we have liked India and Turkey. We have scaled back our allocations to those markets and re-allocated to South Africa, Indonesia, Mexico, and Malysia.
Country
1. south_africa, EZA
2. indonesia, EIDO
3. mexico, EWW
4. Malysia, EWM
5. Chile, ECH
6. Gold, GLD
7. Turkey, TUR
8. Korea, EWY
9. India, INP
10. Israel, EIS
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